Frost: Rising Oil Prices, Energy Security Issues Heighten Interest in Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
November 26, 2008 // Published as a news service by IHS
| |
| Tools for Engineers |
| IHS sells products and services designed to meet the needs of today's engineers. To learn more, and for a free quote, please complete the form below. |
|
| |
Increasing oil prices and growing concerns over energy security are helping accelerate the development and commercialization of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs).
According to Frost & Sullivan, federal and local governments have been proactively funding fuel cell technology and in the medium term, there would be rigorous developments in fuel cell technology, standardization of production and hydrogen storage and ramping up the mammoth task of building hydrogen infrastructure.
Recent analysis from Frost & Sullivan of the global market for fuel cell electric vehicles estimates there will be approximately 120,000 vehicles by 2015.
The FCEV market has just kicked off with the leasing of Honda's FCX Clarity to consumer fleets, but it is limited to regions that are rich in hydrogen infrastructure.
Hydrogen-fuelling stations, which are expected to expand around 2015, will trigger pre-commercial technology refinement and low-volume production around that time. Analysts said to expect a ramp up of production after 2016, leading to mass commercialization.
"Stringent environmental regulations, increased environmental concerns among consumers and growing tax incentives are major factors accelerating the development of FCEVs," said Frost & Sullivan senior research analyst Anjan Hemanth Kumar. "The European Road Transport Research Advisory Council (ERTRAC) has advised 40% reduction in CO2 [carbon dioxide] emissions for the 2020 fleet of passenger cars, which is estimated to 95 g/km [gallons per kilometer] of CO2 emission."
On the incentive front, various producer and consumer tax incentives are developed for FCEVs in Japan and Europe. The U.S. government offers a fuel cell motor vehicle credit of $8,000 for light-duty vehicles until 2009 and $4,000 thereafter. Analysts said tax credits are to be introduced when the fuel cell passenger vehicles are made available.
However, the high cost of FCEV technology, due to stacks, battery and electric drive train, remains a significant restraint to its development. Analysts said the platinum-based catalyst employed in the stacks is mainly responsible for the high material costs of FCEV and consumers will initially have to pay a premium on the FCEV to cover the high production cost and the capital on R&D.
"Furthermore, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and research institutes have still not found a viable means of economic hydrogen production," says Kumar. "Hydrogen can be compressed to one-tenth of its volume in cryogenic liquid state, but there are boil-off issues at a temperature [of] -250 degree Celsius or at a pressure of 700 bars in gaseous state."
Source: Frost & Sullivan.