Sustainable Mobility: The Challenge for Developing Countries
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| In the push for global sustainable mobility, world transport systems will vary widely in their ability to adopt technological solutions. Two crucial factors that will determine the degree to which nations, especially developing nations, can move forward are economic influences and social considerations. Some developing countries are now enjoying strong economic growth. With that growth comes increased road transportation and its associated costs, such as congestion, pollution, noise, and traffic accidents. But these nations are not yet able to make the leap that includes the beneficial technologies that have been invented and implemented over the past several years in developed countries.
Public resistance to mandates for emission control technologies stems from the fact that per capita incomes are significantly lower in developing countries. Expensive technologies are a much greater burden for these consumers, especially when it is affixed to what would otherwise be a comfortably low-cost vehicle. Resentment is compounded if regulations for vehicle emissions are perceived to hobble regional carmakers and so threaten jobs and the growth of local businesses.
At the present time, 75% of the world's stock of vehicles is purchase by developed countries, but it is estimated that over the next three decades, developing countries will account for the majority of the growth of the world's fleet. For this reason, attention to the needs of these markets will be required in order to continue the push toward global sustainability.
In an effort to accommodate rapidly growing economies, like those in China and India, some developing markets are flooded with vehicle models that have been phased out of more stable automotive markets. The priorities in these communities are to keep the economy rolling, the people working, and the roads open. The will exists to bring vehicle standards up to higher levels, matching those in the United States, Japan, and the European Union, but the ability to do so will take time. Action in the near term will be directed to the local level, ensuring a continuous and secure fuel supply and use of existing infrastructure.
In time, however, economic growth will enable the adoption of more advanced emission control technology. Global OEMs are beginning to design vehicles with these developing countries in mind. Their focus is on building vehicles that match local consumers' budgets. Developments in ICEs and in aftertreatment technology will become commonplace as these markets mature, and improvements to the fuels base and to fuel infrastructures will follow. Fuel improvements, such as the use of unleaded and low-sulfur gasoline, will allow more advanced emission control vehicles to enter the market.
Other cultural financial issues, however, inhibit the success of sound emission-control and fuel-efficiency technologies. In countries with lower average per capita incomes, vehicles, once purchased, are kept for longer periods of time, slowing the spread of newer vehicles with their advancing technologies. In addition, local officials are often resistant to the institution of mandatory vehicle testing that would ensure that vehicles are continually maintained. Having more older cars and more poorly maintained cars on the road means that it is less likely that whatever controls are installed will be effective.
It must be emphasized that the will exists in many developing countries to promote policies that move their countries closer to the sustainability model. Many have declared their intention to establish emission limits that match those of the European Union, and some have actually adopted them in recent years. But it is widely accepted that developing nations will, even with diligent effort put toward getting older, dirtier cars off the road, experience a 10 to 15 year lag behind developed nations.
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