Lovins, in a talk at Stanford University, said that transformation to lighter cars would make them more efficient, safer, and more reliable.

Because 75% of energy use is weight-related, enormous savings in consumption will come from the design and manufacture of ultralight cars. Using carbon composites or ultralight steels, says Lovins, will be essentially cost-free, with increases in materials costs offset by efficiency gains. He cites the use of carbon composites in aerospace that have proved to be stronger than steel but only one-quarter as dense. With these materials, RMI designed a prototype mid-size SUV that achieves 114 miles per gallon equivalent with a fuel cell. The increased costs of the vehicle would be recouped in energy savings within two years. The ultralight SUV also proved successful in terms of safety. Simulations showed that a 35-mph crash into a wall wouldn’t damage the passenger compartment.

Lovins pointed up the benefits with plug-in hybrids. Cars are parked 96% of the time, he noted, and charging plug-ins with inexpensive off-peak electricity and then selling power storage back to the grid during peak hours could pay for battery costs. He suggested that a sizable fleet of plug-in hybrids could replace energy generated by new-coal and nuclear-plant sources with as much as six to twelve times the total U.S. generating capacity.

Proposing that the U.S. auto industry make this transformation by choice rather than by legislation, Lovins said that America could completely eliminate its imports of oil and, at the same time, revitalize its economy without taxation or new federal regulation. He cites a joint study by RMI and the Pentagon, published in 2004 called Winning the Oil Endgame: Innovation for Profits, Jobs, and Security. The study indicates that with a $180 billion investment over the next decade, the U.S. can put an end to oil dependence, recharge strategic industries, and save $130 billion gross ($70 billion net) every year by 2025. And that figure pegs oil at just $26 per barrel. Higher oil prices equate to even higher savings. (The cost of oil was $114 per barrel at the time this article was written.)

With the measures proposed in the study, the U.S. could allow markets to drive innovation, netting the benefits of making the American auto industry more competitive and preserving one million at-risk transportation jobs and adding another million new jobs, reducing carbon dioxide pollution by 26%, and improving national security. Under the plans laid out in the study, the U.S. could eliminate imports from the Persian Gulf by 2015. With a smart and strategic transformation, this country could end all oil imports by 2040, and by 2050 the economy could be 100% free from oil.